Dear Top 45,
Mick Fanning, Andy Irons, Bruce Irons, Dean Morrison and Neco Padaratz with draw the event due to injury or personal reasons.
Replacements are:
Nic Muscroft, Gabe Kling, Tim Boal, Manoa Drollet, and Reubyn Ash.
Wild Cards are:
Mark Occhilupo, Hodei Colazzo and Marco San Segundo.
Draw attached.
Swell forecast:
BILLABONG PRO MUNDAKA FORECAST OUTLOOK, SATURDAY 9/27/08
Hey Snips and all-
Things are looking more promising with today’s updated chart and model run. While the first couple days of the waiting period still look small, the swell for the second half of the week is now looking relatively solid (although wind is still problematic). The long range is looking better as well. Please see below for further details.
MONDAY: Starting quite small, with a very slight pick up over the afternoon as new NW swell (300-310) starts to move in. We’ll be lucky to see waist high sets.
WIND: S wind 5-10kts in the early AM, becoming N/NNW over the afternoon around 10-12kts.
TUESDAY: The small NW pulse (300-310) fills in a bit more with waist high sets on the late morning through early afternoon low/incoming tide.
WIND: Light W 5-10kts in the morning, becoming light NW for the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Starting small early, but a new NW swell (305-325) could start to build over the afternoon. If the storm behaves as forecast early next week, chest-shoulder high surf looks possible over the late afternoon before the tide gets too high.
WIND: light WSW in the morning, becoming WNW around 6-10kts in the afternoon.
THURSDAY: NW swell possibly builds further and looks strongest. If the storm behaves as forecast we could see solid head high+ surf, with sets to a couple feet++ overhead on the low tide.
WIND: WNW 12-15kts
OVERVIEW
A large ridge of high pressure is currently stretched across the North Atlantic, effectively shutting down any significant storm production at this time. A recent, small low off Iceland will send in a small scale pulse of NW swell (300-310) primarily on Tuesday (but starting to slowly build late Monday) but, at this point, doesn’t look much better than waist high. Wind conditions look favorable to start the day on Monday, but then turn side/onshore out of the W/NW later Monday and through Tuesday (although looking fairly light).
The second half of the week continues to look better and better on the charts and models. It appears like we’ll see a storm develop off of Greenland early next week, adjacent to a high that will be off of Western Europe. If this high/low combo develops as forecast, a new NW swell (305-325) would start building over the late afternoon on Wednesday, likely top out on Thursday and then ease on Friday.
This new NW swell could build into the chest/shoulder occasional larger range over the later afternoon on Wednesday; Thursday could build to solid head high with with sets running a couple feet feet++ overhead on the best tides, with those waves then tapering off on Friday. Also, with ‘northerly’ angle of the swell, this should be at least a slightly less tide dependent swell. Again, this is contingent on this storm actually behaving as forecast, so we’ll have to wait and see a bit.
Conditions also look at least a little better than yesterday, although still far from ideal. Early morning WSW to W wind prevails Wednesday morning (ok), becoming WNW at moderate strength by the afternoon. BY Thursday it still looks like we’ll see fairly breezy WNW to NW flow around 12-15kts. This will also depend on the same high/low combo that will set up the swell, so stay tuned.
Going even further out, the long range is also looking a little better with a new NW swell looking possible around the afternoon/evening of Sunday the 5th and likely strongest on Monday the 6th. That storm is several days from happening, so we’ll have more details as is it actually does so
